Crayon-addled prediction: The crash will not begin in earnest until just before Christmas, probably not until mid-late in the day on December 23.
It couldn’t start before Thanksgiving, because it would have been known as “The Weekend of a Million ‘I Told You So!’s,” and if Apes were right about one thing, their families might have started believing in MOASS too, and the FOMO on Monday would have been unbelievable.
It can’t start after Christmas, because traders will be watching the markets to get their last few trades in for this year’s taxes. If everyone is already watching, they can react fast enough to prevent some of their losses.
It might happen this Tuesday. Everyone has just spent a ton of money on Black Friday and Cyber Monday deals – they’ll be worried about their finances, and might panic if the markets suddenly tumble. I think more likely there will be a “crash” this coming week to scare some paper hands, but markets will rally afterwards to make everyone who sold at the first sign of a crash regret it. Then when the real thing starts they’ll be scared to sell, and won’t realize that the crashing isn’t going to stop this time until it’s too late.
No, it will be The Christmas Chrash, when everyone is worrying about last minute gifts, traveling, or getting all the pies baked in time. People spending time with family will also be less likely to hear about what’s happening on the news, or because the markets are closed they’ll forget about it, possibly even past Boxing Day as the indexes continue to plummet. There will be a brief bounce on the 29th, just to scare the traders planning to at least sell for a tax loss into holding the bags into the new year, but then the lines will all start heading back down the hill again.
It’s the only time that gives them any real benefit to scheduling the crash at. If they can’t orchestrate it to happen then, then they may as well not try to plan it at all, and just let the train barrel farther and farther across the endless burning bridge they’ve turned the markets into. Eventually the flames will catch up to the locomotive, and the only planning they’ll have to worry about is “conveniently” being in the Cayman Islands when it happens.
Happy Holidays, everyone. Buckle up.