Mark my words…Disney will buy AMC

Since the beginning of Disney, they have released 422 movies according to IMDB. 172 of those have been released since 2000.

https://m.imdb.com/list/ls070880401/?page=5

That’s an average of 7.5 movies per year for the last 23 years. Disney relies on movies for box office revenue and to sell other peripherals related to the movies (theme park tickets, blue rays, toys, merchandise, licensing deals, etc).

Per Yahoo Finance:

AMC Market Cap = 3.77B

APE Market Cap listed as 4.12B but we all know that’s wrong because it’s trading at $1.43 and only a fraction of the additional shares have been sold onto the market…so if we take the 513M original dividend shares + the small new issued shares the market cap is somewhere around 800-850M.

This puts the total of AMC + APE Market Cap at around 4.5B

DIS Market Cap = 167.91B

Disney bought Star Wars for 4.05B in 2012. Disney then released 5 Star Wars movies in theaters between 2015 and 2019 which globally generated 5.8B in box office revenue. All their other revenue sources from owning Star Wars rely on the theatrical release being successful. No theaters means no profit on all their peripheral Star Wars related sales (mentioned before but I’ll say it again: theme park tickets, blue rays, toys, merchandise, licensing deals, etc) which is why they haven’t released a new Star Wars movie since 2019. (They have tentative dates for 2025 and 2027 for the next 2 movies)

https://m.the-numbers.com/movies/franchise/Star-Wars

Disney bought Marvel in 2009 for $4B.

https://www.usatoday.com/story/entertainment/2022/07/28/when-did-disney-buy-marvel/10147483002/

Marvel movies have grossed over 25B in the global box office since Disney purchased Marvel in 2009.

https://m.the-numbers.com/movies/franchise/Marvel-Cinematic-Universe

In the past 12 years Disney has grossed 30B in the global box office from Marvel and Star Wars. This does not include any of their other movie lines. This also doesn’t consider the other revenue generated from peripheral sales related to releasing these blockbusters and selling additional products and experiences.

In short…Disney is one of the stock market titans that would suffer greatly if AMC failed. We already saw proof with their failed “straight to streaming” movies and the lack of revenue they generated.

While Disney could afford to start building their own theaters globally…this would be even more costly and not make any sense compared to buying AMC. Buying AMC would put them in a power position for ALL movies released in the box office globally and basically guarantees their ability to maximize profits from their movie releases.

All they have to do is spend 2.7% of their market cap to do it. Which they’ve proven to spend before for other lucrative acquisitions.

Once Disney owns AMC the stock will not be fucked with because it will be under the DIS umbrella. AMC will go parabolic on this news and the shorts will be forced out and FTDs will finally be bought and delivered.

Not financial advice…just my crazy theory.